Ramadan is not associated with increased infection risk in Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations: Findings from controlled interrupted time series analysis of UK primary care data.

BACKGROUND: The effect of fasting on immunity is unclear. Prolonged fasting is thought to increase the risk of infection due to dehydration. This study describes antibiotic prescribing patterns before, during, and after Ramadan in a primary care setting within the Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations in the UK, most of whom are Muslims, compared to those who do not observe Ramadan. METHOD: Retrospective controlled interrupted time series analysis of electronic health record data from primary care practices. The study consists of two groups: Pakistanis/Bangladeshis and white populations. For each group, we constructed a series of aggregated, daily prescription data from 2007 to 2017 for the 30 days preceding, during, and after Ramadan, respectively. FINDINGS: Controlling for the rate in the white population, there was no evidence of increased antibiotic prescription in the Pakistani/Bangladeshi population during Ramadan, as compared to before Ramadan (IRR: 0.994; 95% CI: 0.988-1.001, p = 0.082) or after Ramadan (IRR: 1.006; 95% CI: 0.999-1.013, p = 0.082). INTERPRETATION: In this large, population-based study, we did not find any evidence to suggest that fasting was associated with an increased susceptibility to infection.

Hospitalization for ischemic stroke was affected more in independent cases than in dependent cases during the COVID-19 pandemic: An interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected health care systems globally. The aim of our study is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of hospital admissions for ischemic stroke by severity in Japan. METHODS: We analysed administrative (Diagnosis Procedure Combination-DPC) data for cases of inpatients aged 18 years and older who were diagnosed with ischemic stroke and admitted during the period April 1 2018 to June 27 2020. Levels of change of the weekly number of inpatient cases with ischemic stroke diagnosis after the declaration of state of emergency were assessed using interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis. The numbers of patients with various characteristics and treatment approaches were compared. We also performed an ITS analysis for each group ("independent" or "dependent") divided based on components of activities of daily living (ADL) and level of consciousness at hospital admission. RESULTS: A total of 170,294 cases in 567 hospitals were included. The ITS analysis showed a significant decrease in the weekly number of ischemic stroke cases hospitalized (estimated decrease: -156 cases; 95% confidence interval (CI): -209 to -104), which corresponds to -10.4% (95% CI: -13.6 to -7.1). The proportion of decline in the independent group (-21.3%; 95% CI: -26.0 to -16.2) was larger than that in the dependent group (-8.6%; 95% CI: -11.7 to -5.4). CONCLUSIONS: Our results show a marked reduction in hospital admissions due to ischemic stroke after the declaration of the state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic. The independent cases were affected more in proportion than dependent cases.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Liver Transplantation and Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease in the USA.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The surge in unhealthy alcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic may have detrimental effects on the rising burden of alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) on liver transplantation (LT) in the USA. We evaluated the effect of the pandemic on temporal trends for LT including ALD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Using data from United Network for Organ Sharing, we analyzed wait-list outcomes in the USA through March 1, 2021. In a short-period analysis, patients listed or transplanted between June 1, 2019, and February 29, 2020, were defined as the "pre-COVID" era, and after April 1, 2020, were defined as the "COVID" era. Interrupted time-series analyses using monthly count data from 2016-2020 were constructed to evaluate the rate change for listing and LT before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Rates for listings (P = 0.19) and LT (P = 0.14) were unchanged during the pandemic despite a significant reduction in the monthly listing rates for HCV (-21.69%, P < 0.001) and NASH (-13.18%; P < 0.001). There was a significant increase in ALD listing (+7.26%; P < 0.001) and LT (10.67%; P < 0.001) during the pandemic. In the COVID era, ALD (40.1%) accounted for more listings than those due to HCV (12.4%) and NASH (23.4%) combined. The greatest increase in ALD occurred in young adults (+33%) and patients with severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (+50%). Patients with ALD presented with a higher acuity of illness, with 30.8% of listings and 44.8% of LT having a Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium score ≥30. CONCLUSIONS: Since the start of COVID-19 pandemic, ALD has become the most common indication for listing and the fastest increasing cause for LT. Collective efforts are urgently needed to stem the rising tide of ALD on health care resources.

Hospital presentations for self-poisoning during COVID-19 in Sri Lanka: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is widespread concern over the impact of public health measures, such as lockdowns, associated with COVID-19 on mental health, including suicide. High-quality evidence from low-income and middle-income countries, where the burden of suicide and self-harm is greatest, is scarce. We aimed to determine the effect of the pandemic on hospital presentations for self-poisoning. METHODS: In this interrupted time-series analysis, we established a new self-poisoning register at the tertiary care Teaching Hospital Peradeniya in Sri Lanka, a lower-middle-income country. Using a standard extraction sheet, data were gathered for all patients admitted to the Toxicology Unit with self-poisoning between Jan 1, 2019, and Aug 31, 2020. Only patients classified by the treating clinician as having intentionally self-poisoned were included. Data on date of admission, age or date of birth, sex, and poisoning method were collected. No data on ethnicity were available. We used interrupted time-series analysis to calculate weekly hospital admissions for self-poisoning before (Jan 1, 2019-March 19, 2020) and during (March 20-Aug 31, 2020) the pandemic, overall and by age (age <25 years vs ≥25 years) and sex. Individuals with missing date of admission were excluded from the main analysis. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2019, and Aug 31, 2020, 1401 individuals (584 [41·7%] males, 761 [54·3%] females, and 56 [4·0%] of unknown sex) presented to the hospital with self-poisoning and had date of admission data. A 32% (95% CI 12-48) reduction in hospital presentations for self-poisoning in the pandemic period compared with pre-pandemic trends was observed (rate ratio 0·68, 95% CI 0·52-0·88; p=0·0032). We found no evidence that the impact of the pandemic differed by sex (rate ratio 0·64, 95% CI 0·44-0·94, for females vs 0·85, 0·57-1·26, for males; pinteraction=0·43) or age (0·64, 0·44-0·93, for patients aged <25 years vs 0·81, 0·57-1·16, for patients aged ≥25 years; pinteraction=0·077). INTERPRETATION: This is the first study from a lower-middle-income country to estimate the impact of the pandemic on self-harm (non-fatal) accounting for underlying trends. If the fall in hospital presentations during the pandemic reflects a reduction in the medical treatment of people who have self-poisoned, rather than a true fall in incidence, then public health messages should emphasise the importance of seeking help early. FUNDING: Elizabeth Blackwell Institute University of Bristol, Wellcome Trust, and Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention. TRANSLATIONS: For the Sinhalese and Tamil translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Respiratory virus surveillance in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic: An epidemiological analysis of the effectiveness of pandemic-related public health measures in reducing seasonal respiratory viruses test positivity.

BACKGROUND: Various public health measures have been implemented globally to counter the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The purpose of this study was to evaluate respiratory virus surveillance data to determine the effectiveness of such interventions in reducing transmission of seasonal respiratory viruses. METHOD: We retrospectively analysed data from the Respiratory Virus Detection Surveillance System in Canada, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, by interrupted time series regression. RESULTS: The national level of infection with seasonal respiratory viruses, which generally does not necessitate quarantine or contact screening, was greatly reduced after Canada imposed physical distancing and other quarantine measures. The 2019-2020 influenza season ended earlier than it did in the previous year. The influenza virus was replaced by rhinovirus/enterovirus or parainfluenza virus in the previous year, with the overall test positivity remaining at approximately 35%. However, during the 2019-2020 post-influenza period, the overall test positivity of respiratory viruses during the COVID-19 was still low (7.2%). Moreover, the 2020-2021 influenza season had not occurred by the end of February 2021. CONCLUSION: Respiratory virus surveillance data may provide real-world evidence of the effectiveness of implemented public health interventions during the current and future pandemics.

Zero-Inflated Time Series Modelling of COVID-19 Deaths in Ghana.

Discrete count time series data with an excessive number of zeros have warranted the development of zero-inflated time series models to incorporate the inflation of zeros and the overdispersion that comes with it. In this paper, we investigated the characteristics of the trend of daily count of COVID-19 deaths in Ghana using zero-inflated models. We envisaged that the trend of COVID-19 deaths per day in Ghana portrays a general increase from the onset of the pandemic in the country to about day 160 after which there is a general decrease onward. We fitted a zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model and zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model to the data in the partial-likelihood framework. The zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model outperformed the zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model. On the other hand, the dynamic zero-inflated Poisson autoregressive model performed better than the dynamic negative binomial autoregressive model. The predicted new death based on the zero-inflated negative binomial autoregressive model indicated that Ghana's COVID-19 death per day will rise sharply few days after 30th November 2020 and drastically fall just as in the observed data.

Surgical volume reduction and the announcement of triage during the 1st wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a cohort study using an interrupted time series analysis.

PURPOSE: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused unprecedented challenges for surgical staffs to minimize exposure to COVID-19 or save medical resources without harmful patient outcomes, in accordance with the statement of each surgical society. No research has empirically validated declines in surgical volume in Japan, based on the usage of surgical triage. We aimed to identify whether the announcement of surgical priorities by each Japanese surgical society may have affected the surgical volume decline during the 1st wave of this pandemic. METHODS: We extracted 490,719 available cases of patients aged > 15 years who underwent elective major surgeries between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2020. After the categorization of surgical specialities, we calculated descriptive statistics to compare the year-over-year trend and conducted an interrupted time series analysis to validate the decline of each surgical procedure. RESULTS: Monthly surgical cases of eight surgical specialities, especially ophthalmology and ear/nose/throat surgeries, decreased from April 2020 and reached a minimum in May 2020. An interrupted time series analysis showed no significant trends in oncological and critical surgeries. CONCLUSION: Non-critical surgeries showed obvious and statistically significant declines in case volume during the 1st wave of the COVID-19 pandemic according to the statement of each surgical society in Japan.